Future scenarios

Sam Abbott

2019-07-31

Set-up

• Load packages required for analysis

• Load the fitted model and prior draws.

## Wrapper around LibBi
## ======================
## Model:  Baseline 
## Run time:  14214.12  seconds
## Number of samples:  1000 
## State trajectories recorded:  E H L P S T_E T_P YearlyAgeCases YearlyDeaths YearlyECases YearlyEPulCases YearlyPCases YearlyPulCases 
## Noise trajectories recorded:  NoiseNUKCases 
## Parameters recorded:  beta_young_adult c_eff c_hist_half c_hist M_young_adult M meas_error meas_std non_uk_scaling older_adult_activation_scaling

Scenarios

• Set up settings for prediction

• Predict future for baseline scenario (school age vaccination).

• Predict future for no vaccination scenario

• Predict future for neonatal vaccination

• List all models and assign names

Generate summarised output

• Plot an overview of states

• Plot an overview of states zoomed into 2004 onwards

• Plot fitted observed states.

• Plot fitted observed states.

• Table fitted states

• Plot concentrated age distributed cases

• Plot age distributed cases.

• Plot concentrated age distributed deaths